Italian exports forecast

After a growth of 3% during 2018, Italian exports showed signs of a slowdown during 2019, consistent with the global trade slowdown linked to the current international situation. However, the performance of Italian exports has shown good resilience to the current economic context, having also benefited from a weak euro.
Based on this evidence, what prospects open for Italian exports in the 2020-2021? According to the StudiaBo forecast scenario, based on latest International Monetary Fund outlook, Italian exports will grow at an annual average rate of 3.7% in euro over the next two years, recording an acceleration compared to the growth rates experienced during 2018 and 2019.

Articulating the analysis by sectoral detail, the following graph shows the Italian industries positioning on the basis of the average variation recorded in the 2018-2019 (x-axis) and the expected change in the period 2020-2021 (y-axis). The size of the circle is proportional to the level of Italian exports in 2019. In this way it is possible to identify the accelerating industries above the yellow line, from those slowing down below it.

Source: ExportPlanning.

Two clusters of goods emerge in terms of future performance: consumer goods and investment goods.

The growth in Italy's export of consumer goods continues

Consumer goods has experienced dynamic growth in recent years, which will continue into the next two years. In recent months, in fact, consumer goods has been less affected by the international economic slowdown, proving to be the most resilient product cluster.
In particular, in the 2020-2021 the positive performance of the Italian export of Health Goods will continue, supported by the growing world population and increasing health demand.
Favorable prospects also for the system of Finished products for the person, up 4.7% in euro in the forecast period. An important contribution to growth will be given by Asian economies such as China, Japan and South Korea.
Last but not least, the Agribusiness segment, which is also expected to grow on average by 4.7%. Also in this case the Asian markets will offer the most interesting prospects, in particular Japan and South Korea.

Slight resumption of investment goods

Italian exports of investment goods recorded a moderate growth during 2018 and 2019, due to the slowdown in the business investment cycle, linked to an increase in uncertainty on the international panorama and the growing difficulties of emerging economies. In 2020-2021 the dynamics of Italian exports of investment goods for industry is expected to be on a recovery path.
Among the capital goods, the case of the automotive deserves special mention. The sector has in fact anticipated the slowdown of the industry due to the structural transformations. The upward outlook of Italian export of the sector is linked to the positive forecast scenario of agricultural machinery and special-purpose vehicles, while the estimates remain more cautious for the motor vehicle industry.