Home Textiles, a sector particularly resilient in the first half of 2023: what are the prospects for the second half of the year?

An analysis of the performance of international competitors and markets in the average 2023

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Slowdown Planning Conjuncture Forecast Export markets Uncertainty International marketing Made in Italy International marketing

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The first half of 2023

In the first half of the year, within an overall picture of sharply declining world exports of the Household Products industry, the performance held up positively of the home textile sector1, as documented in a previous article of the ExportPlanning magazine.
In the first six months of 2023, world exports of home textiles showed trend growth both in current values (+4% in euro) and at constant prices2 (with an increase close to 2 percentage points).

The leading home textile markets

In particular, the cases of significant increases in the United States markets (+8.7% compared to the first half of 2022, measured at constants), Singapore (+155%), Vietnam (+49.8%), Hong Kong (+64.3%) and Russia (+43.4%).

The performance of the main home textile competitors

At the level of competitor countries, the results for the first half of the year highlight the positive performance of sales of home textiles denominated in euros by China (+11.5 % compared to the first half of 2022), Germany (+4.2%), Italy and Pakistan (+1.7% for both), against - instead - the downward trend for Turkey and India (with two-digit percentage falls) and, to a lesser extent, for Poland and the Netherlands.

ExportPlanning 2023 pre-estimates

ExportPlanning, as part of the series of personalized services Market Insights , has developed a procedure for providing in real time, with details by product, market and competitor country, a pre-estimate relating to the cumulative 20233 in values, quantities and prices, with the aim of allowing a company to have a series of benchmarks that are always updated to evaluate, on the one hand , its competitive positioning and, on the other hand, identifying the best opportunities in terms of target destinations for its products.

In the case of the home textile sector, the ExportPlanning calculations for the second half of the year signal - thanks to the deterioration of the international economic situation, in addition to the expected reduction in inflation (and the related impacts on sales lists) - a downward trend in values in euro close to 8.5 percentage points (and approximately 6% at constant prices), leading to an overall result of a slight reduction in foreign turnover denominated in euro at the end of the year: -2.5% (-2% at constant prices).

Main home textile markets

The analysis of the top 20 world markets by value of imports in 2023 (according to ExportPlanning pre-estimates) indicates the following driving markets at the end of the year: Vietnam (+34.8% in euros compared to 2022, corresponding to an average annual increase of 153 million euros, continuing the strong expansionary phase of recent years), Russia (+19.2%, corresponding to an overall increase of 101 million euros compared to 2022), Saudi Arabia (+14.7%, equal to an increase of 76 million euros), Switzerland (+10.6%, equal to an increase of 68 million euros) and Italy (+2.5%, equal to an increase of 26 million euros).

Imports of home textiles from the world
Levels (Bn €) % Changes
Market 2019 2023E 2022/2019 2023E/2022
United States 10.0 11.5 +26.2 - 8.4
Germany 3.0 3.3 +24.2 - 9.4
Japan 2.5 2.7 +10.9 - 3.6
France 1.7 2.2 +31.0 - 3.2
United Kingdom 1.8 1.9 +15.2 -10.0
Netherlands 1.2 1.4 +32.6 -12.3
Australia 0.9 1.3 +51.7 - 8.1
Canada 1.1 1.2 +32.6 -16.8
Italy 0.8 1.1 +34.7 + 2.5
Spain 0.9 1.0 +14.0 - 1.1
Poland 0.7 0.8 +34.0 -19.4
United Arab Emirates 0.4 0.8 +93.8 - 3.2
Belgium 0.7 0.7 +7.6 - 0.9
Switzerland 0.5 0.7 +28.2 +10.6
Russia 0.4 0.6 +49.4 +19.2
Saudi Arabia 0.4 0.6 +42.4 +14.7
Vietnam 0.1 0.6 +448 +34.8
Korea 0.5 0.6 +21.7 - 4.8
Austria 0.6 0.5 +4.4 -10.6
Sweden 0.5 0.5 +16.2 -12.5
Source: ExportPlanning-Market Insights

On the other hand, a slowdown (even significant) is expected compared to the first half of the year for home textile imports on the United States markets (-8.4% at the end of the year in euro values, with an overall reduction of over 1 billion euro compared to 2022), Germany (-9.4% compared to 2022, losing 345 million euros compared to last year), Canada (-16.8%, with a decrease of 236 million euros compared to 2022), United Kingdom (-10%, with an annual reduction of 207 million euros ), Netherlands (-12.3% compared to last year, with a decrease of 194 million euros), Poland (-19.4%, with an annual reduction of 182 million euros), Australia (-8.1%, with a decrease of 116 million euros compared to 2022) and Japan (-3.6%, with an annual reduction of 103 million euros).

Main competitor countries for home textiles

The analysis of the main home textile competitor countries by value of exports in 2023 (according to ExportPlanning pre-estimates) reports the following growing exporters at the end of the year: China (+2.8% in euros compared to 2022, corresponding to an overall increase of 747 million euros, given its role as a leading competitor in absolute values), France (+16.1%, corresponding to an overall increase of 110 million euros compared to 2022), Mexico (+8.2%, equal to an increase of 69 million euros), Germany (+2.5%, equal to an increase of 44 million euros), Spain (+5.3%, equal to an increase of 35 million euros) and Italy (+2.1% compared to 2022, equal to an increase of 12 million euros).

Exports in the world of home textiles
Levels (Bn €) % Changes
Competitor 2019 2023E 2022/2019 2023E/2022
China 21.9 27.6 +22.7 + 2.8
Pakistan 3.2 4.3 +44.3 - 4.6
India 3.7 4.0 + 9.3 - 1.3
Germany 1.6 1.8 + 9.6 + 2.5
Turkey 1.5 1.7 +30.0 -12.2
Poland 1.1 1.3 +23.0 - 2.2
Netherlands 0.7 1.0 +32.6 + 0.1
Mexico 0.6 0.9 +45.7 + 8.2
Vietnam 0.6 0.9 +59.6 - 4.6
France 0.5 0.8 +28.1 +16.1
Spain 0.6 0.7 + 4.9 + 5.3
United States 0.6 0.9 +21.7 - 9.4
Portugal 0.6 0.7 +26.3 -12.3
Bangladesh 0.5 0.6 +44.9 -18.0
Italy 0.5 0.6 +27.4 + 2.1
Source: ExportPlanning-Market Insights

On the other hand, negative performances are expected at the end of the year for home textile exports of Turkey (-12.2% at the end of the year in values in euros, with an overall reduction estimated at 232 million euros compared to 2022, thus interrupting the high growth phase of the previous three-year period), Pakistan (-4.6% compared to 2022, losing 209 million euros compared to last year), Bangladesh (-18 %, with a decrease of 141 million euros compared to last year, in sharp deterioration after the brilliant period 2020-2022), Portugal (-12.3%, with an annual reduction of 95 million euros), United States (-9.4% compared to last year, with a contraction of 71 million euros), India (-1.3%, with an annual reduction of 51 million euros, confirming dynamics in the last years less favorable than the average of international competitors), Vietnam (-4.6%, with a decrease of 43 million euros compared to 2022, interrupting thus the significant growth phase of the previous period) and Poland (-2.2%, with an annual reduction of 29 million euros).

Conclusions

The ExportPlanning calculations relating to the second half of the current year show, for a sector that has so far been resilient with respect to the marked cyclical worsening of world sales of the Home Furnishing System, such as that of home textiles, an expected deterioration in sales performance in the second part of 2023, after a 2020-2022 period that had recorded an overall growth in euro values of more than 28 percentage points.

In a certainly less favorable picture, however, they are rather differentiated, both in terms of international markets and as regards the main competitor countries in the sector.

The need for exporting companies to monitor
the performance of markets and competitor countries
for their specific business area

For exporting companies in the home textile sector (but not only) it therefore appears strategic to be able to adequately evaluate their performance and identify the markets for their specific business area more resilient international markets, on which to (re-)focus their marketing and commercial development actions.

As already reported, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.

1) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
2) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the World Trade Datamart.
3) The 2023 pre-estimate is performed using suitable nowcasting techniques, which allow for the elaboration of estimates on the evolution of trade flows. To do this, the technique put in place by the ExportPlanning experience is that of the 12-term product-specific and country-specific ARIMA forecasting models, detailed at 6-digit Harmonized System product code and declaring country, which make it possible to make very reliable short-term forecasts, based on a historical series already acquired for the first part of the year in course.