Ecological transition and digitalisation to support world sales of Electronic Components and Electrical Engineering
Despite the slowdown in the international economy, significantly positive growth rates are expected from this supply chain in the 2024-2027 scenario
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .
Slowdown Planning Electronics Forecast Industries Uncertainty International marketing
Log in to use the pretty print function and embed function.
Aren't you signed up yet?
signup!
According to the International Monetary Fund (source: World Economic Outlook of October 2023), in 2023 the world GDP will be slightly below 3%, slowing down by more than half a percentage point compared to the 2022 average (which had already seen a halving of the growth compared to the previous year).
In such a context, the world trade of manufactured goods is expected to close the year in negative territory1, both measured at constant prices (-1.9%, from +8.4% in 2022) and also in euro values (-3.7%, drastically down from +22.7% last year).
The slowdown in world trade has also impacted supply chains that were particularly dynamic until now, such as that made up of Electronic Components2 and Electrotechnical Engineering3, without however interrupting its growth path at an international level (at least when measured at constant prices)4.
Despite a relatively less favorable economic cycle, world demand for Electronic Components and Electrotechnical Engineering is expexted to continue to benefit from structural drivers, such as the ecological transition and digitalization
Even in perspective, despite the expected more selective pace of development of the world economy compared to the historical experience of the last decade, with global GDP expected to record an average annual growth of 3.1 percent in the 2024-2027 scenario (compared to an average growth rate of +3.7% of the 2010s5), the forecasts of global demand for the supply chain appear however favourable, with development rates expected to be even more dynamic than the average ones of the 2010s.
The 2024-2027 forecast for the Electronic Components industry
As shown in the table below, in the four-year period 2024-2027 the world trade of Electronic Components is expected to show growth rates of +5.7% on average per year (CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate) in the values in euro, faster than the average of the 2010s (when the CAGR was +4.4%).
In particular, global trade in valves, tubes, diodes and electronic boards is expected to show more favorable average annual dynamics than the previous decade (CAGR 2024-2027: +6.7%, approximately 5 percentage points higher than the average of the 2010s), parts and accessories of audio, video and telephony (CAGR 2024-2027: +6%, also faster than the most recent four-year period [2020-2023]), magnetic and optical media storage (again in positive territory, after a declining phase in the recent period). Furthermore, world trade in parts and accessories for measuring instruments will continue to show growth rates aligned with those of the most recent period (CAGR 2024-2027: +5.2%).
Electronic Components: world trade evolution
(values and CAGR at current prices)
| Values in 2023E | Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) in euro |
|||
| Bn € | 2019/2010 | 2023E/2019 | 2027F/2023E | |
| Parts of computers and other office machines | 1 061.0 | + 6.2% | + 7.0% | + 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parts and accessories for audio, video and telephony | 221.5 | + 1.3% | + 1.5% | + 6.0% |
| Valves, tubes, diodes and electronic boards | 219.1 | + 1.8% | +10.7% | + 6.7% |
| Parts and accessories for measuring instruments | 60.6 | + 5.2% | + 5.2% | + 5.2% |
| Capacitors (fixed and adjustable) | 30.8 | + 4.8% | + 4.7% | + 4.5% |
| Magnetic and optical media storage | 12.0 | - 4.7% | - 6.9% | + 0.8% |
| TOTAL Electronic Components | 1 605.1 | + 4.4% | + 6.3% | + 5.7% |
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Annual Trade Data, Forecast Datamart
The 2024-2027 forecasts for the Electrotechnical Engineering industry
Similarly, the forecasts for the four-year period 2024-2027 relating to global trade in Electrotechnical Engineering highlight a growth scenario at average annual rates (CAGR: +5.7% in euro values) that are more accelerated than the average of the last decade (when the CAGR had been +4.6%).
In particular, as highlighted in the table below, global trade in high voltage cables is expected to show more favorable average annual dynamics than the last decade (CAGR 2024-2027: +6.9%, almost 3 percentage points higher than the average of the 2010s), electricity distribution and control apparatus (CAGR 2024-2027: +5.8%, accelerated by almost 3% points compared to the experience of the previous decade), lamps and parts of light fittings (again in positive territory [CAGR: +4.3%], after the average negative phase of the last decade), electric motors, generators and transformers (CAGR 2024-2027: +6.1%, 2 points faster than the average of the decade).
Electrotechnical Engineering: world trade evolution
(values and CAGR at current prices)
| Values in 2023E | Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) in euro |
|||
| Bn € | 20219/2010 | 2023E/2019 | 2027F/2023E | |
| Wires and cables, switches, plugs, sockets and electrical panels | 234.2 | + 5.1% | + 6.0% | + 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric motors, generators and transformers | 229.2 | + 4.1% | +11.2% | + 6.1% |
| Parts for electrical equipment | 106.5 | + 3.4% | + 6.4% | + 4.8% |
| Switchboards | 87.0 | + 9.7% | + 9.7% | + 6.8% |
| Electricity distribution and control apparatus | 19.1 | + 4.1% | + 9.0% | + 5.8% |
| High voltage cables | 13.4 | + 4.1% | + 9.8% | + 6.9% |
| Lamps and parts of light fittings | 11.5 | - 2.6% | + 0.8% | + 4.3% |
| Other electrotechnical engineering | 5.7 | + 5.0% | + 5.5% | + 4.4% |
| TOTAL Electrotechnical Engineering | 706.6 | + 4.6% | + 8.1% | + 5.7% |
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Annual Trade Data, Forecast Datamart
Conclusions
Despite a deteriorating international economic cycle, with relatively less favorable macroeconomic prospects compared to the experience of the 1910s, in the 2024-2027 scenario, world demand for Electronic Components and Electrotechnical Engineering is expected to continue to benefit from structural drivers, such as the ecological transition and digitalisation.
Specifically, over the next four years, global trade in this supply chain is expected to show growth rates close to an average of 6% per year in euro values, by almost 1 and a half points more dynamic than the average pace recorded in the experience of the 2010s.
These are, moreover, overall dynamics, which see different growth intensities both at the product level (as the tables contained in this analysis can document), and also at the level of geographical markets.
Thanks to the new series of services Market Insights, ExportPlanning it can support the 2024 budget of exporting companies, providing a short-term forecast of the evolution of the markets of interest for a specific business area.
1) StudiaBo's pre-estimates are based on the first 9 months of 2023, processed at current and constant prices in Ulisse Datamart of the ExportPlanning Information System.
2) For a description of the sectors included in the industry considered, please refer to the relevant industry profile.
3) For a description of the sectors included in the industry considered, please refer to the relevant industry profile.
4) According to the 2023 closing pre-estimates formulated by StudiaBo and available in the Ulisse Datamart, the global demand for Electronic Components and Electrotechnical Engineering, while remaining growing when measured at constant prices, is expected to show a marked slowdown, going from +25.1% in 2022 to +3.6% at the end of the year.< br> 5) Source: Latest World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (October 2023).
