Industry trends in the US market in the 4th quarter of 2023

In the face of significant drops in consumer and intermediate goods, US market showed excellent performances of the automotive industry, but also still positive trends for food & beverage and machinery

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Conjuncture United States of America Uncertainty Global economic trends

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Industry trends of the US market

Pre-estimates for the 4th quarter of 2023, developed by StudiaBo starting from data US Census Bureau and available in ExportPlanning in the USA Trade Datamart, allow us to document the following phenomena relating to the demand conditions of the US market:

  • the driving role of the automotive supply chain (components and finished products)1, which - after a positive 2022 - highlighted double-digit percentage growth dynamics throughout 2023 (closed with a preliminary balance of +22% in dollar values);
  • the holding of demand of an acyclical industry (and characterized by inflationary phenomena) like the Food & Beverage2, which is estimated to have closed the year with a growth of +2.8 percent in dollar values, and the Machinery3, which was able to maintain a growth profile in dollar values throughout 2023 (closing the year with +4.2% compared to 2022);
  • the sharp slowdown in the growth of imports of Electrotechnical and Electronic Engineering4 and Chemicals & Healthcare Products5; in the first case, after a 2022 with imports growing at good rates (+13.6%), a declining phase took over in 2023, which led the sector to close the year with a drop of approximately 3 percentage points in dollar values; in the case, however, of the chemical-pharmaceutical industry, the end-of-year result is slightly positive (+0.4% in dollar values), but with a clear slowdown compared to the excellent 2022 performance (+40.5%);
  • the marked difficulties in 2023 in consumer and intermediate goods sectors, such as Fashion Products6, Household Products7 sup> and Packaging and Other Intermediates8, after a favorable 2022. Fashion Products' US imports lost, on average in 2023, almost 19 percentage points in dollar values; those of Household Products 14 percentage points; those of Packaging and other intermediates even over 20 percentage points;
  • the start of a negative cycle for numerous investment goods, such as Industrial Tools and Equipment9 (-4.2% in pre-final 2023, after +16% in 2022) and, above all, ICT and Service Equipment10 (-10.5% at the preliminary balance of the year, after +13.1% the previous year).

US Imports of Manufactured Goods:
Year-over-Year % changes in dollars

2022 H1-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023E 2023E
Food & Beverage +19.9 + 2.7 + 1.2 + 4.5 + 2.8
Fashion Products +18.9 -20.3 -21.4 -12.1 -18.8
Household Products + 6.4 -21.5 -10.5 - 1.0 -14.0
Packaging & Intermediates +10.5 -23.5 -20.4 -12.9 -20.4
Chemicals & Healthcare Products +40.5 - 0.6 + 3.4 - 0.5 + 0.4
Automotive Supply-Chain +15.8 +23.8 +21.4 +19.5 +22.0
Electrotechnical and Electronic +13.6 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 1.1 - 2.9
Industrial Tools and Equipment +16.0 - 2.2 - 7.0 - 5.3 - 4.2
Machinery +12.3 + 6.3 + 0.5 + 3.8 + 4.2
ICT and Service Equipment +13.1 -13.5 -17.1 + 2.3 -10.5
TOTAL +17.9 - 3.2 - 3.0 + 2.1 - 1.9
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, USA Trade Datamart

Focus on the Automotive Supply Chain

US foreign trade data confirm, even in the most recent quarter, the significantly favorable phase for imports of products from the automotive supply chain.

In particular, the excellent growth performance of imports in the cars, buses and caravans11 sector should be highlighted, which - thanks above all to the development of the electric vehicles segment (+121% compared to 2022 in dollar values) - has put sign an average annual increase estimated at over 51 percentage points in dollar values.

Double-digit percentage growth also affected US imports of vehicles for freight transport12 (+19.5% in dollar values) and planes and other aircraft13 (+21.8% pre- final balance sheet 2023, recovering after -24.8 percent in 2022), while the negative counter-trend dynamics of the motorcycles14 sector should be noted (down by 15 percentage points in the 2023 average).

US Imports of Automotive Supply-Chain:
Year-over-Year % changes in dollars

2022 H1-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023E 2023E
Components for vehicles +18.9 + 7.4 + 4.0 + 6.2 + 6.2
Cars, buses and caravans + 7.7 +48.9 +58.5 +49.2 +51.4
Vehicles for freight transport +20.1 +27.1 +11.3 +15.0 +19.5
Planes and other aircraft -24.8 +43.9 +19.8 + 1.2 +21.8
Motorcycles +41.4 - 4.1 -18.0 -29.7 -15.0
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, USA Trade Datamart

Conclusions

US import data updated to the last quarter of 2023 confirmed the expansion phase of demand for automotive supply chain products.

We also document the holding phase of US demand for food & beverage and there is still a favorable dynamic - in positive contrast with the investment goods complex - of imports of machinery.

Finally, the phase of difficulty experienced by US demand for non-food consumer goods is confirmed (fashion products and household products, on all) and intermediate goods (packaging, primarily).

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