EU exports 2023 by industry: in a context of general slowdown, the automotive supply chain has been a driving force

Pre-estimates for the 4th quarter of 2023 of foreign trade of EU countries, available in the ExportPlanning Information System, allow to document the pre-final balance sheet results for the year for the export of EU companies at a product level (industry/sector/product/8-digit customs code).
This article will present an analysis of European exports by industry.

A significant slowdown in EU exports occurred
in the second half of 2023

During the second part of 2023, EU exports showed a significant slowdown: as documented by the graph below, since Q2-2023 the growth rate of exports of EU companies entered negative territory in nominal values in euros.

Source: ExportPlanning - EU Trade Datamart

The slowdown in EU exports which occurred in the second half of 2023 affected the various industries
in a generalized manner

The following bubble map shows the different industries of the ExportPlanning¹ classification, positioning them on the basis of the Year-over-Year change rates of EU exports in values in euros recorded in the first half of 2023 (X axis) and in the second half of 2023 (Y axis). The size of the bubbles is proportional to the value of EU exports for each industry.
The bisector is drawn in yellow, which allows us to highlight the industries (positioned below it) that recorded a deceleration in the rates of change in EU exports in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half.

As can be seen, the sectoral picture appears compact, with all industries recording a deceleration in the growth rate of EU exports in the second half of the year.

Map of EU Exports by industry in 2023

By hovering the mouse over the circle identifying an industry, a table can be displayed that summarizes the annual value and six-month change data for EU exports of the selected industry

Source: ExportPlanning - EU Trade Datamart

Although the slowdown in EU sales which occurred in the second half of 2023 appears to be widespread across all industries, the intensity with which it manifested itself appears to be differentiated in sectoral terms.

EU exports 2023: the driving industries

In particular, 2023 EU exports highlight the best performance overall in euro values for:

1. F3-Cars, transport and agricultural equipment² (+16.8% compared to 2022, albeit with an undoubted slowdown: from +26.5% trend in the first half to +8.3% in the second);
2. D3-Components for vehicles³ (+12.6% on average for the year, but of a +19.1 percent trend in the 1st half-year and a +6.1 percent in the 2nd);
3. F4-Machinery⁴ (+10.7% on average in 2023, which reflects the + 14.5% in the first semester and +7.6% in the most recent semester);
4. D4-Electrotechnical industry⁵ (+9% overall 2023), indeed penalized by a second half of strong slowdown (+2.1%), after a first half year trend growth of +16.4%;
5. E0-Packaged Food and Beverage⁶ (+6.4% overall), also penalized in this case from the strong slowdown in the second half of the year (+1.4%) after a first half year with trend growth of +11.9 percent.

EU exports 2023: the slowing down industries

The industries most penalized during 2023, measured in terms of exports of EU companies, can be traced back - due to a reduction in prices and, consequently, a general process of stock depletion - to the sectors raw materials and intermediate goods and components.

In particular, EU exports of Natural Raw Materials⁷ (A1) recorded an overall decline by 17.2 percentage points in euro values compared to 2022 (with a trend drop in the second half of approximately 26 percentage points); similarly, EU exports of Industrial Raw Materials⁸ (A2) marked an average annual reduction of - 17.3 percent.

As regards, however, intermediate goods and components, there are widespread declines in 2023 EU exports in euro values; in particular for:

1. B3-Pulp and Paper and Forest products⁹ (-16.4% compared to 2022), which reflects a first half of the year already in negative territory (-13.7% trend) and a subsequent worsening in the most recent half-year (-19.2%);
2. B5-Fine Chemicals and Specialties¹⁰ (-5.8% on average per year), with two both semesters negative in trend terms, but with the second significantly worsening (-9.4%);
3. C1-Building materials and products¹¹ (-4.7% compared to 2022);
4. D1-Electronic parts¹² (-3.1%), heavily penalized from the second half of the year (-10.9), after a first half of trend growth;
5. B2-Fabrics and leather¹³ (-3.1%), with a worsening in the second half of the year (-5.8% trend) after the stability of the first part of the year.

Conclusions

Despite a context of general worsening in the most recent period, the relative dispersion of sectoral trends suggests that exporting companies have to constantly monitor the situation of the markets of interest for their business area.

Thanks to the series of new services, named Market Insights, ExportPlanning can support the market monitoring of exporting companies, providing updated information in real time on the evolution of the markets of interest for a specific business area.