US Consumer Goods Demand: Positive Confirmation in Q3 2024, but with Differences at Sector Level

The data for the third quarter of 2024 on US foreign trade, available in the Quarterly US Trade Datamart, show a further strengthening of demand for consumer goods¹: in the most recent period, US imports of consumer goods grew by 11 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of 2023 in dollar values, accelerating compared to the first half of the year (+9.3% trend) and largely recovering from the 2023 decline (-8.7%).

As documented in the recent article "Mixed Signals from the US Market in Q3 2024", the consumer goods component is, in the current US market situation, the main driving force of US imports of goods.

As the following table highlights, however, the positive phase of US imports of consumer goods finds different intensities depending on the sectors, with someones showing widely expansive dynamics and others, instead, appearing in more disturbed conditions.

US Consumer Goods Imports by sectors
(% Year-over-Year changes in dollars)

Non-food consumer goods and, above all, healthcare are the sectors driving US imports of consumer goods in the third quarter of 2024...

Healthcare Goods

In the most recent quarter, US imports of healthcare goods confirmed very accelerated growth dynamics, with a year-over-year variation of +33.5 percent in dollar values (after the +33.9% y-o-y of the first half of the year).
In cumulative terms over the years, after an already positive 2023 (+7.4% in dollars), the performance of US imports of the sector is only highly dynamic (+33.8% in dollars compared to the first 9 months of 2023), for an overall increase of approximately 55 billion dollars.

Pharmaceuticals (+46.8% y-o-y in the first 9 months of the year, for a value of +50.4 billion dollars) have been offering by far the greatest positive contributions to the growth of US healthcare imports.

Non-food Consumer Goods

In the most recent quarter, US imports of non-food consumer goods, although partially slowing, confirmed double-digit growth dynamics, with a trend variation of +10.7 percent in dollar values ​​(after the +16.3% yoy in the first half of the year).
In cumulative terms, after a slightly negative 2023 (-2.4% in dollars), the performance of US imports of the sector is largely positive (+14.4% in dollars compared to the first 9 months of 2023), for an overall increase of over 2 billion dollars.

The segments of the non-food consumer goods sector that are offering the greatest positive contributions to the growth of US imports are, in order, those of stationery and batteries (+24.1% trend in the first 9 months of the year, for a value of +803 million dollars), paper products for household use (+10.9%, equal to +345 million dollars), pet food (+27%, equal to +334 million dollars), detergents and other products for washing, cleaning, polishing (+15.2%, equal to +277 million dollars) and personal hygiene (+10.6%, equal to +213 million dollars).

.. compared to moderate increases for agribusiness...

Agribusiness Goods

In the most recent quarter, US agribusiness imports, although remaining in positive territory, showed a moderate slowdown, with a trend variation of +6.5 percent in dollar values (after the +9.5% year-over-year in the first half of the year).
In cumulative terms, the growth performance of US imports of the sector continues to be robust: +8.5 percent compared to the first 9 months of 2023, for an overall increase of over 12 billion dollars.

The segments of the agribusiness sector that are offering the greatest positive contributions to the growth of US imports are, in order, those of vegetables and legumes, fresh and preserved (+29.5% trend in the first 9 months of the year, for a value of +3.5 billion dollars), fresh fruit (+18.9%, equal to +2.7 billion dollars), fresh and frozen meat (+15.6%, equal to +1.5 billion dollars) and oil, condiments and spices (+14.6%, equal to +985 million dollars).

.. and partially recovering dynamics
for the home- and, above all, the fashion- goods.

Home Goods

In the most recent quarter, US imports of the home industry showed a moderate improvement, with a year-over-year variation of +3.5 percent in dollar values (after the +1.5% y-o-y in the first half of the year).
In cumulative terms, after a very negative 2023 (-15.7% in dollars), the performance of US imports of the sector is only moderately positive (+2.2% in dollars compared to the first 9 months of 2023), for an overall increase of approximately 3.5 billion dollars.

The segments that have been offering the greatest positive contributions to the evolution of US imports are, in order, those of home appliances (+6.2% trend in the first 9 months of the year, for a value of +1.8 billion dollars), furniture and furnishing elements (+3.9%, equal to +788 million dollars), home textiles (+7.4%, equal to +691 million dollars) and various household items (+5%, equal to +840 million dollars).

Fashion Goods

In the most recent quarter, US imports of the fashion industry showed an improvement, with a year-over-year variation of +3 percent in dollar values (after the -5.2% y-o-y in the first half of the year).
In cumulative terms over the years, after the poor 2023 result (-17.1% in dollars) the performance of US imports of the sector is only moderately negative (-2.4% in dollars compared to the first 9 months of 2023), for an overall decrease of approximately 5 billion dollars.

The segments of the fashion industry that have been offering the greatest positive contributions to the evolution of US imports are, in order, underwear and hosiery (+8.9% trend in the first 9 months of the year, for a value of +1.6 billion dollars), perfumes and cosmetics (+14.6%, equal to +1.4 billion dollars), personal objects (+7%, equal to +1.2 billion dollars) and clothing external (+1.5%, equal to +570 million dollars).

Conclusions

Despite an overall favorable context for US demand for consumer goods, the high dispersion of sector results and a constantly evolving context reaffirm the strategic importance for an exporting company of continuous monitoring of market conditions, in terms of demand and the dynamics of the main competitors, in order to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of the reference foreign markets, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.