EU imports improving in Q3 2024
Signs of recovery from EU demand for intermediate and consumer goods; EU demand for investment goods, however, still weak
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .
Europe Conjuncture Industries Uncertainty Import Global economic trends
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The pre-estimates for the 3rd quarter of 2024, developed by StudiaBo based on Comext data - and available in ExportPlanning in Quarterly EU Trade Datamart - allow us to document a strengthening for US imports.
After a first half of the year still in a downward trend (both in values in euros [-6%] and in quantities [-3.5%), after the average annual decline in 2023 (-8.5% in euros; -8% in quantities), the third quarter of 2024 showed an improvement in total imports from EU countries, returning to positive territory: +2.2% in values in euros, +0.7% in quantities.
In Q3-2024, the EU area's imports returned to growth both in terms of euro values and quantities...
Year-over-Year changes of EU imports by macro-sectors
| Year-over-Year % changes in euros | |||
| Macro-sector | Y2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 |
| Commodities | -24.1% | -11.5% | + 0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Goods | - 2.7% | - 6.8% | + 1.3% |
| Consumer Goods | - 1.9% | - 0.8% | + 6.5% |
| Investment Goods | + 5.9% | - 5.2% | - 0.1% |
| TOTAL Goods | - 8.5% | - 6.0% | + 2.2% |
| Year-over-Year % changes in quantity | |||
| Macro-sector | Y2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 |
| Commodities | - 8.0% | - 4.2% | - 0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Goods | -10.1% | + 0.1% | + 6.3% |
| Consumer Goods | - 2.9% | + 0.7% | + 6.3% |
| Investment Goods | + 4.3% | - 9.6% | - 0.4% |
| TOTAL Goods | - 8.0% | - 3.5% | + 0.7% |
Source: ExportPlanning processing from Quarterly EU Trade Datamart
.. with improvements especially for EU imports
of consumer goods and intermediate goods.
Trends in EU imports by macro-sectors
Commodities
In the most recent quarter, EU imports of commodities, although improving, showed overall stability: +0.2% in euro values (after -11.5% in the first half of the year), -0.8% in quantity (after -4.2% in the first half of the year).
In particular, improvements were noted in EU imports, but only partially recovering compared to the first part of the year, both for natural raw materials (-2.9% year-over-year in euro, after -13% in the first half of the year) for both industrial raw materials (+2.6% y-o-y, after -10.4% in the first 6 months of the year).
Intermediate Goods
In the third quarter of 2024, EU imports of intermediate goods showed a significant improvement: after a first half of the year that had marked a trend decline of close to 7 percentage points in values in euro (and substantial stability in quantities), the most recent months have, instead, recorded a "plus" sign in comparison with the corresponding period of 2023: +1.3% in values in euro, +6.3% in quantities.
In particular, the improvements of intermediate chemicals (+10.5% y-o-y in euro values, after the +5.3% of the first half of the year and, above all, after the -11% annual average of 2023), electronic components (+8.6% y-o-y, after the -9.4% of the first half of the year), paper intermediates (+7.4% y-o-y, after the +1.5% of the first half of 2023 and, above all, after the -13.5% of the 2023 average), building materials and products (+4.8% y-o-y, after the -0.8% of the first half of 2024 and, above all, after the -12% of the 2023 average), metal intermediates (+4.1% y-o-y, after -4.4% in the first 6 months and, above all, after the -10% of the 2023 average) and intermediates in non-metallic minerals (+4% y-o-y, after -4.3% in the first half and, above all, after the -9.8% of 2023).
On the other hand, partial improvements should be noted for EU imports of mechanical and optical components (-4.3% y-o-y in euro in the most recent months, after -12.6% in the first half of the year) and components for automotive (stable result y-o-y in the most recent quarter, after the -3.8% trend in the first half of the year).
Consumer Goods
EU imports of consumer goods also showed a significant improvement in the most recent quarter: +6.5% in values in euros (after -0.8% in the first half of the year), +6.3% in quantities (after +0.7% in the first 6 months of the year).
In particular, in the most recent quarter all the consumer industries analyzed recorded "plus" signs of EU imports in the year-over-year changes in values in euros. Above all, the performances of packaged food and beverages (+8.7% trend in euros) and non-packaged food (+7.8%) are noteworthy, as well as the significant recovery of EU imports of finished household products (+7.5%, after the -4.9% of the first part of 2023 and, above all, the -7.9% of the 2023 average).
Furthermore, positive trend results (and accelerating) are highlighted in the most recent quarter also for non-food consumer goods (+6.8% in euro values), healthcare products and equipment (+6.6%) and fashion products (+4.2%, after -3.7% in the first half of the year and, above all, -5.4% of the 2023 average).
Investment Goods
In the most recent quarter, EU imports of investment goods, although also improving, have, however, maintained a slightly negative tone: -0.1% in values in euros (after -5.2% in the first half of the year), -0.3% in quantities (after -9.6% in the first half of the year).
However, in the most recent quarter, differentiated product trends within the macro-sector should be highlighted: on the one hand, the year-over-year growth in the values in euros of EU imports of tools and equipment for ITC and services (+5.8%) and tools and equipment for industry (+3.3%, after -5.4% in the first half of the year); on the other hand, there are - although improving - the y-o-y declines in EU imports of cars, transport and agriculture equipment (-4.3%, after -5.8% in the first half of the year), machinery (-2%, after -9.5% in the first half), electrical engineering (-1.4%, after -10.1% in the first half of the year) and industrial engineering (-0.3%, after -7.3% in the first half of the year).
Conclusions
The examination of the most recent trends in EU imports by macro-sectors highlights a strengthening of demand, especially for intermediate goods and consumer goods.
Although improving, imports of investment goods continue to show less favorable dynamics, even if the picture at a industry level appears somewhat differentiated: in positive territory the tools and equipment component, in new decline the machinery, automotive, electrical engineering and industrial engineering components.
