Global Exports of Machinery: signs of strengthening in the third quarter of 2024

The outlook, however, remains weak and highly heterogeneous at a sectoral level.

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Industrial equipment Conjuncture Check performance Export Uncertainty Global economic trends

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The preliminary estimates of the third quarter of 2024 of world trade, available in the ExportPlanning Information System, allow to highlight signs of improvement in the framework, still disturbed, of global exports of machinery.

After a first half that had marked a weak growth trend in world exports of machinery1 measured at constant prices (+1.9%), the third quarter of the year showed an acceleration (+5.5% Year-over-Year, at constant prices), bringing the cumulative of the first 9 months to a Y-o-Y growth of 3.1 percent.

Sectoral performances appear, however, quite differentiated...

However, as can be observed from the table below, the outlook of world exports of machinery appears very heterogeneous at the sectoral level.

World Exports of Machinery:
% Year-over-Year changes at constant prices

% Y-o-Y changes at constant prices
Y2023 H1-2024 Q3-2024 YTD 2024 Latest 4Q/Y2019
Paper-making machines - 0.7 - 4.8 - 4.6 - 4.7 +10.9
Semiconductor mach. - 9.2 + 7.3 + 2.0 + 5.5 +55.8
M. for metal processing + 8.7 + 3.2 + 6.4 + 4.3 +13.2
M. tools for metals + 7.3 - 4.2 - 2.3 - 3.6 + 2.8
Tools for hard materials - 7.8 + 3.3 + 7.9 + 4.8 - 6.3
Extrusion machinery + 3.9 + 1.1 + 5.0 + 2.4 + 7.0
Textile machinery - 9.2 - 3.1 + 5.2 - 0.4 - 1.0
Food machinery + 2.2 + 1.9 + 3.1 + 2.3 + 2.3
Packaging machines + 9.3 + 0.9 + 9.9 + 3.8 +10.3
Printing machines + 9.6 - 3.4 + 1.9 - 1.7 -29.1
Other machinery - 2.0 + 4.9 +14.2 + 8.0 +11.7
TOTAL - 0.9 + 1.9 + 5.5 + 3.1 +11.8
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart

In particular, the following clusters are found:

  • a positive and accelerating trend. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    • Machinery for Metal Processing2: thanks to +6.4% Y-o-Y in Q3-2024 (at constant prices), the first 9 months of 2024 showed a cumulative Y-o-Y growth of +4.3% (constant prices);
    • Machine Tools for Hard Materials3: thanks to the acceleration to +7.9% Y-o-Y in Q3-2024 (constant prices), the balance of the first 9 months shows a cumulative Y-o-Y growth of +4.8% (constant prices);
    • Extrusion Machinery4: the acceleration to +5% in Q3-2024 (constant prices) brought the cumulative figure for the first 9 months of the year to a Y-o-Y growth of +2.4% (constant prices);
    • Food Machinery5: the Y-o-Y growth of +3.1% in Q3-2024 (constant prices), after +1.9% in the first half, brought the cumulative figure for the first 9 months of the year to a Y-o-Y growth of +2.3% (constant prices);
    • Packaging Machinery6: the significant acceleration to +9.9% in Q3-2024 (constant prices) brought the cumulative figure for the first 9 months of the year to a Y-o-Y growth of +3.8% (constant prices);
    • Other special purpose machinery7: the significant acceleration to +14.2% in Q3-2024 (constant prices) brought the cumulative of the first 9 months of the year to a Y-o-Y growth of +8% (constant prices);
  • an accelerating but still negative trend. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    • Textile Machinery8: despite the acceleration in Q3-2024 (with a Y-o-Y growth of +5.2% at constant prices), the first 9 months of 2024 recorded a slight Y-o-Y decline (-0.4% at constant prices);
    • Printing Machines9: the return to the "plus" sign in Q3-2024 (+1.9% Y-o-Y at constant prices) does not, however, allow the cumulative annual figure (first 9 months) to show a Y-o-Y growth result (-1.7% at constant prices);
  • a positive but slowing-down trend. This refers, in particular, to the Semiconductor Machinery10 sector, which recorded in Q3-2024 a Y-o-Y growth by only 2 percentage points (constant prices), after the +7.3% Y-o-Y change (constant prices) of the first half of the year;
  • a negative and not accelerating trend. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    • Paper-making Machines11: Q3-2024 confirmed a still negative Y-o-Y trend pace, at around -5 percentage points (constant prices);
    • Machine Tools for Metals12: also in this case the change in Q3-2024 (-2.3% Y-o-Y at constant prices) did not lead to a significant benefit in the cumulative balance of the first 9 months of the year (-3.6% Y-o-Y at constant prices).

.. also comparing them with pre-pandemic levels.

The table above also documents the changes of world exports of machinery compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The last four quarters compared to year 2019 show a significantly positive differential (+11.8 at constant prices), which indicates that from the pandemic to today, global exports of machinery have made significant progress (even net of inflation and currency phenomena13).

However, even in this case, the sectoral picture appears to be quite heterogeneous. In particular, the following clusters are noted:
  • large positive deviations compared to pre-pandemic levels. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    1. Semiconductor Machinery: the comparison between global exports of the last 4 quarters and those of 2019 highlights a positive differential of almost 56 percentage points at constant prices, indicating that the last five years have represented - overall - a phase of significant growth in the sector at an international level;
    2. Machinery for Metal Processing: the comparison between world exports of the last 4 quarters and those of 2019 highlights a significant positive differential (+13.2 percentage points at constant prices);
    3. Other special purpose machinery: the comparison between current levels (last 4 quarters) and pre-pandemic levels (2019) of world exports of the sector shows a differential of almost 12 percentage points at constant prices;
    4. Paper-making Machinery: the comparison between the current levels (last 4 quarters) and the pre-pandemic levels (2019) of the sector's world exports shows a differential of almost 11 percentage points at constant prices;
    5. Packaging Machinery: the comparison between the current levels (last 4 quarters) and the pre-pandemic levels (2019) of the sector's world exports shows a differential of over 10 percentage points at constant prices;
    6. Extrusion Machinery: the comparison between the current levels (last 4 quarters) and the pre-pandemic levels (2019) of the sector's world exports shows a differential of 7 percentage points at constant prices;
  • modest differences compared to pre-pandemic levels. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    1. Machine Tools for Metals: the differential between the levels of the last 4 quarters and the 2019 levels of world exports by sector is less than 3 percentage points at constant prices;
    2. Food Machinery: the differential between the levels of the last 4 quarters and the 2019 levels of world exports by sector is slightly above 2 percentage points at constant prices;
    3. Textile Machinery: the differential between the levels of the last 4 quarters and the 2019 levels of world exports by sector is slightly negative (-1%) when measured at constant prices;
  • large negative deviations compared to pre-pandemic levels. The following sectors fall into this cluster:
    1. Printing Machines: for this sector, the differential between the levels of the last 4 quarters and the 2019 levels of world exports is largely negative (-29.1% in the measurement at constant prices), indicating that the last five years have represented - overall - a phase of significant downsizing of the sector at an international level;
    2. Machine Tools for Hard Materials: although with less pronounced deviations, also for this sector the differential of the current levels of world exports compared to pre-pandemic levels is negative (-6.3 percent, at constant prices).

The importance of monitoring market trends
at a "product-specific" level

The high dispersion of sector results and a constantly evolving context reaffirm the strategic importance for an exporting company of continuously monitoring market conditions, in terms of demand and dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area of reference, in order to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of international markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.

1) See here the description table of the industry considered.
2) See here the related description table.
3) See here the related description table.
4) See here the related description table.
5) See here the related description table.
6) See here the related description table.
7) See here the related description table.
8) See here the related description table.
9) See here the related description table.
10) See here the related description table.
11) See here the related description table.
12) See here the related description table.
13) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the Quarterly World Trade Datamart.