A patchy picture for US demand of capital goods in Q4-2024
Electrotechnical engineering is accelerating; a positive confirmation for tools and equipment for ICT and services; machinery and other equipment for industry are holding up; difficulties for automotive, agricultural and earthmoving machines
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .
Industrial equipment Conjuncture United States of America Global economic trends
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The preliminary estimates of the fourth quarter of 2024 of US foreign trade, available in the US Trade Datamart, show a patchy picture for US demand for capital goods1.
Overall, in the most recent period2 US imports of the sector grew compared to the corresponding period of 2023 by 4 percentage points in euros and by over 7 percentage points in dollars, at a better pace than the 2023 average (-0.1% in euros; +3.2 in dollars). However, the picture appears very differentiated at the level of individual industries, as shown in the table below.
U.S. Imports by capital goods sector
(% Year-over-Year in Euro)
| 2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q4-2024E | |
| Electrotechnical Engineering | -1.3 | +3.6 | +7.7 | +8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tools and Equipment for ICT and services | -14.5 | +6.2 | +23.1 | +11.3 |
| Tools and Equipment for industry | -5.6 | +5.0 | +6.7 | +5.0 |
| Automotive | +18.8 | +11.1 | +1.9 | -1.3 |
| Earth-moving Machinery | +27.7 | -7.6 | -28.0 | -31.1 |
| Agricultural Machinery | -9.0 | -0.3 | -27.3 | -22.1 |
| Industrial Machinery | +1.5 | +4.1 | +11.6 | +5.0 |
| Mechanical Engineering | +1.1 | +6.7 | +3.5 | +0.6 |
| TOTAL Investment Goods | -0.1 | +6.7 | +9.2 | +4.0 |
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, US Trade Datamart
Confirmation of double-digit Y-o-Y growth for the tools and equipment for ICT and services sector, acceleration in electrotechnical engineering and maintenance of an increasing trend for tools and equipment for industry and machinery...
The fourth quarter of the year saw confirmation of the high dynamism of demand for US imports of Tools and Equipment for ICT and services: +11.3% in euro values (+14.9% in $) compared to the corresponding period in 2023.
It should also be noted that the US demand outlook for Electrotechnical Engineering has strengthened: +8.5% in euro values (+12% in $) compared to the corresponding period in 2023 2023, accelerating compared to the first part of the year.
Furthermore, the Year-over-Year growth of US demand for Tools and Equipment for industry is confirmed (+5% in euro values; +8.5% in $) and Industrial Machinery, with imports growing Year-over-Year by 5 percentage points in euro values (and 8.4 percentage points in $), but with quite differentiated trends at the level of business areas3.
...while imports of mechanical engineering show weak Y-o-Y growth and "minus" signs (even significant ones) for agricultural machinery, earth-moving machinery and automotive.
In Q4-2024 US imports of Mechanical Engineering recorded rather modest trend growth (+0.6% in euro values; +3.9% in $), decelerating compared to the first three quarters of the year (+5.6 in €; +4.6% in $).
In Q4-2024 US imports of Earth-moving Machinery (-31.1% Year-over-Year in euro values; -28.9% in $) and Agricultural Machinery (-22.1% Y-o-Y in euros; -19.6% in $) continue to remain in broad negative territory. However, these are different cases: in the first case, it is a worsening compared to 2023 which - on average for the year - had recorded particularly favorable results (+27.7% in euro values compared to 2022; +32.6% in $); in the second case, however, the negative trend - worsening, moreover - already highlighted last year is confirmed (-9% Y-o-Y in euro values on average in 2023; -6% in $).
Last but not least, it is worth noting the continuation of the deterioration phase in US demand for imports of Automotive (-1.3% Year-over-Year in euro values; +1.9% in $), after 2023 (+18 Y-o-Y in euro values; +23% in $) and a first half of 2024 (+11.1% Y-o-Y in euro; +10.5% in $) in broad positive territory.
Conclusions
Despite an overall Year-over-Year growth result, in Q4-2024 US demand for capital goods showed (even very) differentiated trends at the level of individual industries.
In particular, most of the sectors considered have maintained a positive Y-o-Y trend (both in euro and dollar values), with performances of greater importance in the field of tools and equipment for ICT and services and electrotechnical engineering and some specific segments of industrial machinery.
However, it is also worth highlighting the phase of difficulty (even significant) of the US market for the demand for agricultural machinery, earth-moving machinery and, more recently, automotive.
1) The aggregate considered refers to the following industries: electrotechnical engineering, industrial machinery, tools and equipment for industry, tools and equipment for ICT and service, mechanical engineering, automotive, earth-moving machinery and agricultural machinery.
2) Please note that in Q4-2024 the Euro exchange rate depreciated by approximately 3 percent against the US Dollar: therefore, the dynamics in euro values are less accelerated than those measured in $.
3) Within the industrial machinery sector, in Q4-2024 the most significant contribution to the growth of US imports was recorded by the Semiconductor Manufacturing Machinery segment (+890 million euros compared to the corresponding period in 2023, equal to +73.7% Year-over-Year), which reinforces what was already highlighted in the previous quarter (+55.4% Y-o-Y in euro values) and the still favorable dynamic, although in attenuation, of Other Special Purpose Machinery. On the other hand, the Year-over-Year declines in US imports of Printing Machinery were confirmed (-21.2% Y-o-Y in euro values, after -24.9% Y-o-Y in the first 9 months of the year), Textile Machinery (-14.4% Y-o-Y in euro, after -10.6% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year), Paper-making Machinery (-10.1% Y-o-Y in euro, after -8.3% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year), Machine Tools for Hard Materials (-7.8% Y-o-Y in euro, after -2.8% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year), Metalworking Machine Tools (-6.3% Y-o-Y in euro, after -6.6% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year) and Extrusion Machinery (-3.3% Y-o-Y in euro, after -9.9% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year). Added to these is the recent deterioration in US demand for Packaging Machinery (-5.1% Y-o-Y in euro in the most recent quarter, after +12.8% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year) and Food Machinery (-0.4% Y-o-Y in euro in the most recent quarter, after +9.4% Y-o-Y in the first three quarters of the year).
