EU imports in Q4 2024: the demand picture, although overall weak, shows some improvement
Confirmation of strengthening for the demand for Consumer Goods; trends still disturbed, however, for Commodities, Intermediate and Investment Goods
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .
Europe Conjuncture Industries Uncertainty Import Global economic trends
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The pre-estimates for the 4th quarter of 2024, developed by StudiaBo based on Comext data - and available in ExportPlanning in Quarterly EU Trade Datamart - show a moderate improvement for EU imports.
After the first half of the year with a downward trend (both in values in euros and in quantities) and a third quarter that returned to weak positive territory (+0.9% in values in euros; +0.4% in quantities), the last quarter of the year saw a moderate strengthening of total imports from EU countries: +1.7% Year-over-Year in values in euros, +3.4% Y-o-Y in quantities.
In Q4-2024 the overall growth of EU imports
(both in euro and in quantity)...
Year-over-Year changes of EU imports by macro-sectors
| Year-over-Year % changes in euros | ||||
| Macro-sector | Y2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q4-2024E |
| Commodities | -24.1% | -11.5% | - 3.4% | - 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Goods | - 2.7% | - 6.8% | + 0.0% | + 1.4% |
| Consumer Goods | - 1.9% | - 0.8% | + 7.2% | + 7.9% |
| Investment Goods | + 5.9% | - 5.2% | - 1.6% | + 0.9% |
| TOTAL Goods | - 8.5% | - 6.0% | + 0.9% | + 1.7% |
| Year-over-Year % changes in quantity | ||||
| Macro-sector | Y2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q4-2024E |
| Commodities | - 8.0% | - 4.0% | - 1.4% | + 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Goods | -10.1% | + 0.0% | + 4.4% | + 4.7% |
| Consumer Goods | - 2.9% | + 0.8% | + 5.4% | + 6.3% |
| Investment Goods | + 4.3% | - 9.5% | + 6.4% | + 6.8% |
| TOTAL Goods | - 8.0% | - 3.4% | + 0.4% | + 3.4% |
Source: ExportPlanning processing from Quarterly EU Trade Datamart
.. with a strengthening of EU demand for Consumer Goods,
in the face of - instead - more uncertain trends for Commodities, Intermediate Goods and Investmet Goods.
Trends in EU imports by macro-sectors
Commodities
In the most recent quarter, EU imports of Commodities confirmed still disturbed trends, with a new Year-over-Year decline in values in euros (-4.8%) and a Y-o-Y growth in quantities (+3.1%).
In particular, weak Year-over-Year increases in quantities but Y-o-Y drops in value were confirmed for EU imports of both natural raw materials (-9.4% in euros; +2.2% in tons) and also industrial raw materials (-1% in euros; +4.8% in tons), thus signaling Y-o-Y declines in average prices in both sectors (which is a clear evidence of still weak demand compared to supply).
Intermediate Goods
In the fourth quarter of 2024, EU imports of Intermediate Goods showed a moderate improvement, but with still limited deviations: +1.4% Year-Over-Year in euros (after the Y-o-Y stability of the previous quarter); +4.7% Y-o-Y in quantities (after +4.4% Y-o-Y in the previous three months).
In particular, in the most recent quarter the best Year-over-Year performances were highlighted for construction goods and products (+6.3% in euros; +5.2% in tons), chemical intermediates (+5.7% in euros, +5% in tons), paper intermediates (+4.2% in euro, +7.9% in tons) and metal intermediates (back to trend growth both in euros and in tons).
On the other hand, it is worth noting that EU imports of non-metallic mineral intermediates, electronic components (still in a downward Year-over-Year in euros), mechanical and optical components and components for means of transport (in weak Y-o-Y growth in euros, but decreasing Y-o-Y in quantities).
Consumer Goods
In the most recent quarter, EU imports of Consumer Goods recorded a consolidation of the Year-over-Year growth: +7.9% Y-o-Y in in euros (after the +7.2 percent Y-o-Y of the previous quarter), +6.3% Y-o-Y in quantities (after the +5.4% Y-o-Y of the previous three months).
In particular, in the most recent quarter all the consumer industries analyzed - with the exception of the textiles industry - recorded "plus" signs in the Year-over-Year performances in euros of EU imports. Above all, the accelerated Y-o-Y performances of packaged food and beverages (+8.7% Y-o-Y in euros), non-packaged food (+9.4% Y-o-Y in €) and healthcare products and equipment (+7% Y-o-Y in €) is confirmed, as well as the continuation of the Y-o-Y improvements in EU imports of both finished household products (+9.7% Y-o-Y in euros) and finished products for the person (+7.9% Y-o-Y in €).
Finally, a positive Year-over-Year performance is confirmed (but slightly decelerating in the most recent quarter) also for non-food consumer goods (+5.2% Y-o-Y in euros).
Investment Goods
In the most recent quarter, EU imports of Investment Goods confirmed the signs of Year-over-Year improvement of the previous quarter, but the intensity of Y-o-Y growth in euros was limited (+0.9%), testifying to a still disturbed demand context.
In the most recent quarter, differentiated sector trends within the macro-sector should also be highlighted: on the one hand, the Year-over-Year growth in euros of EU imports of tools and equipment for ITC and services (+3.3%) and tools and equipment for industry (+2.7%) were confirmed; on the other hand, there are - although improving - the Y-o-Y declines in euros of EU imports of machinery (-3.7%), industrial engineering (-1.3%) and automotive and agricultural machinery (-0.7%).
Finally, a renewed positive Year-over-Year performance is noted for EU imports of electrical engineering (+1.4% in euro values), after a negative first part of the year.
Conclusions
The analysis of the most recent trends in EU imports by macro-sectors highlights a strengthening of the economic outook of European demand, especially for the Consumer Goods macro-sector.
Despite an overall improvement, imports of Commodities (with average prices in a downward trend), Intermediate Goods and Investment Goods (with a rather differentiated outlook at an industry level) continue to show disturbed dynamics.
