World Trade is recovering for Consumer Goods: the case of the Fashion industry
In the 4th quarter of 2024 world exports of fashion products showed a (albeit moderate) re-acceleration
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .
Conjuncture Global economic trends
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The preliminary estimates of the 4th quarter of 2024 of world trade, available in ExportPlanning in Quarterly World Trade Datamart - highlight a economic improvement for world exports of consumer goods. In the measurement at constant prices1, in the period October-December 2024, world exports of consumer goods showed an estimated trend growth of +6.3 percent, accelerating compared to the previous quarter (+4.8% at constant prices) and especially to the first half of the year (+2.5% at constant prices).
Among the macro-sectors of consumer goods in the acceleration phase, the case of the Fashion industry2 is noteworthy.
Analyzing the data on world trade in Q4-2024, a positive trend was recorded for world exports of Fashion Products (+3.9% Year-over-Year at constant prices), which strengthens the signal of recovery already glimpsed in the previous quarter, after a 2023 and a first part of 2024 of negative tone.
World Exports of Fashion Products:
% Year-over-Year changes at constant prices
| % Y-o-Y changes at constant prices | ||||
| Sector | Y2023 | H1-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q4-2024 |
| Outerwear | - 6.9% | - 1.3% | - 0.1% | + 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jewellery and watches | + 4.8% | - 4.0% | - 4.8% | - 3.1% |
| Underwear and hosiery | - 4.9% | + 6.8% | + 5.7% | + 8.8% |
| Footwear | -11.4% | - 5.5% | + 0.0% | + 2.3% |
| Perfumes and cosmetics | + 4.0% | + 2.3% | + 4.6% | + 6.2% |
| Leather goods | + 0.5% | - 1.4% | - 3.3% | + 1.8% |
| Books/other products of creative activities | - 4.4% | - 4.3% | - 4.7% | - 1.8% |
| Sporting goods and musical instruments | -14.0% | + 5.7% | + 9.4% | +10.8% |
| Lenses and glasses | + 3.3% | + 4.4% | + 5.6% | + 4.6% |
| Other Fashion products | -11.6% | + 2.2% | + 1.4% | + 6.1% |
| TOTAL | - 4.4% | - 0.6% | + 0.1% | + 3.9% |
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart
In particular, the following sectors are:
- accelerating and in positive territory:
- Uuterwear3: thanks to the +7.7% Year-over-Year trend in the fourth quarter of the year (measured at constant prices), it is the sector with the greatest positive contributions to the trend growth of world exports of Fashion Products;
- Underwear and hosiery4: further strengthening of growth in the most recent quarter (+8.8% Year-over-Year at constant prices, after +5.7% in the previous quarter and +6.8% in the first half of the year), leading to a 2024 result (+7% in the pre-estimate at the end of the year) of full recovery after the decline in 2023;
- Footwear5: after a very negative 2023 (-11.4% Year-over-Year at constant prices) and a first part of 2024 still in a declining phase, the last quarter of last year showed a - albeit moderate - return to positive rates (+2.3% Y-o-Y at constant prices);
- Perfumes and cosmetics6: the Year-over-Year growth of world exports in the sector continued in the fourth quarter of 2024 (+6.2% at constant prices), leading to a cumulative annual increase (pre-estimates 2024) of close to 4 percentage points (measured at constant prices);
- Leather goods (bags, suitcases and wallets)7: after a declining first part of the year, global sales in the sector showed a positive reversal of the trend in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a Year-over-Year growth close to 2 percentage points when measured at constant prices;
- Sporting goods and musical instruments8: the fourth quarter of 2024 confirmed the recovery phase of global sales in the sector (+10.8% Year-over-Year at constant prices), resulting in an estimated year-end result of growth of approximately 8 percentage points (after the -14% Y-o-Y of 2023);
- Lenses and glasses9: in this case too, the most recent quarter confirmed the Year-over-Year expansion phase of global sales in the sector, with a result at the end of 2024 estimated to have grown by almost 5 percentage points in the measurement at constant prices (also confirming the positive average annual performance of 2023);
- improving but still in negative territory the following sectors:
- Jewelry and watches10: despite the improvement in the most recent quarter, global sales in the sector are estimated to have closed 2024 with a Year-over-Year decline of nearly 4 percentage points when measured at constant prices (after the +4.8% Y-o-Y in 2023);
- Books and other products of creative activities11: also in this case, despite the Year-over-Year improvement highlighted in the fourth quarter of 2024, global sales of the sector are estimated to have closed last year with a Y-o-Y decline of almost 4 percentage points in the measurement at constant prices (confirming the downward trend of the 2023 average).
The importance of monitoring market conditions
at a "product-specific" level
Recent world trade data appear to highlight an improving context for the macro-sector of consumer goods and, in particular, for the Fashion Products.
Although improving, the still uncertain evolution of the world outlook suggests to an exporting company of Fashion industry the strategic usefulness of continuous monitoring of market conditions, in terms of demand and dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area of reference, in order to allow it to best support its international positioning.
With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.
1) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the Quarterly World Trade Datamart.
2) See here the description table of the industry considered.
3) See here the related description table.
4) See here the related description table.
5) See here the related description table.
6) See here the related description table.
7) See here the related description table.
8) See here the related description table.
9) See here the related description table.
10) See here the related description table.
11) See here the related description table.
