World trade of capital goods: uncertainty continues, but with significant sectoral differences

In the face of continuing difficulties in the automotive sector, accelerations in world exports of electrotechnical engineering, machinery and tools&equipment are noted in Q4-2024

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Metal industry Industrial equipment High-tech Uncertainty Conjuncture Industries Global economic trends
Stampa

The preliminary estimates of the 4th quarter of 2024 of world trade, available in ExportPlanning in the World Economic Outlook Datamart, show an overall moderate growth for world sales of capital goods. In the measurement at constant prices1, in the period October-December 2024, world exports of capital goods showed an estimated Year-over-Year growth of +2.5 percent, at the same pace as the previous quarter (+3.2% at constant prices), but more accelerated than the first half of the year (-0.2% at constant prices).

Within the capital goods sector,
rather differentiated trends at sector level

World Exports of Investment Goods:
% Year-over-Year changes at constant prices

% Y-o-Y changes at constant prices
Sector Y2023 H1-2024 Q3-2024 Q4-2024
Electrotechnical Engineering - 2.2% - 3.9% + 3.5% + 6.1%
Tools and Equipment for ICT and services - 7.5% + 3.3% + 9.1% + 8.6%
Tools and Equipment for industry + 0.5% + 3.0% + 7.7% + 7.8%
Automotive +14.6% - 0.3% + 1.0% - 4.0%
Agricultural Machinery - 6.2% -13.0% -11.0% - 4.4%
Earth-moving Machinery + 5.5% - 2.6% -12.2% - 6.1%
Industrial Machinery - 1.3% + 2.6% + 7.0% + 9.1%
Mechanical Engineering + 1.8% - 5.0% - 1.0% + 2.5%
TOTAL Investment Goods + 2.6% - 0.2% + 3.2% + 2.5%
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart

Analyzing the data on world trade by capital goods sectors, in the most recent quarter rather differentiated trends emerge. In particular, the following sectors are:

  • accelerating and in broad positive territory:
    • Electrotechnical Engineering2: thanks to the +6.1% Year-over-Year change in the fourth quarter of the year (constant prices), it is the sector with the greatest recent acceleration in global sales of the sector, leading to a year-end in slightly positive territory (+0.3% Y-o-Y in the 2024 pre-estimate);
    • Tools and Equipment for ICT and services3: consolidation of growth in the most recent quarter (+8.6% Y-o-Y at constant prices, after +9.1% in the previous quarter), leading to a 2024 result (+6.2% Y-o-Y in the pre-estimate of the end of the year) of recovery after the decline in 2023;
    • Tools and Equipment for industry4: consolidation of growth in the most recent quarter (+8% Y-o-Y at constant prices, after +7.7% in the previous quarter), leading to a largely positive 2024 result (+5.4% Y-o-Y in the pre-estimate of the end of the year, at constant prices);
    • Industrial Machinery5: strengthening of growth in the most recent quarter (+9.1% Y-o-Y at constant prices, after +7% in the previous quarter), leading to a 2024 result (+5.4% Y-o-Y in the pre-estimate of the end of the year, at constant prices) of full recovery after the moderate reduction of 2023;
  • improving but not enough to close the year in the black the Industrial Engineering6 sector: thanks to the +2.5% Year-over-Year change in the fourth quarter of 2024 (constant prices), the sector shows signs of recovery, not enough - however - to allow a growth end to the year; the estimated balance at the end of 2024 is an average annual Y-o-Y decline in global sector sales of 2.2 percentage points (constant prices);
  • still in negative territory the following sectors:
    • Agricultural Machinery7: with a -4.4% Year-over-Year trend in the fourth quarter of the year (constant prices), it is the sector with the worst performance on an annual basis (with an estimated Y-o-Y decline of almost 11 percentage points compared to 2023, at constant prices);
    • Earth-moving Machinery8: the -6.1% Y-o-Y trend in the fourth quarter of 2024 (constant prices) is certainly less penalizing than the previous quarter (-12.2%), but leads to a year-end Y-o-Y decline of 6 percentage points compared to 2023 (constant prices);
    • Automotive9: the fourth quarter of the year saw a new Y-o-Y deterioration trend (-4% at constant prices), leading 2024 to an estimated closure in negative territory (-1% Y-o-Y at constant prices).

The importance of monitoring market conditions
at a "product-specific" level

Recent world trade data confirm an overall context of only moderate growth for the macro-sector of capital goods.
The high heterogeneity of the results at the sector level suggests, moreover, to an exporting company the strategic utility of continuous monitoring of market conditions, at the level of demand and dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area of reference, in order to allow it to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.

1) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the Quarterly World Trade Datamart.
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