The Challenge of Energy Independence

Energy independence is not just an economic issue: it is a geopolitical lever that has driven wars, crises and alliances for more than a century. Today, as the United States consolidates its self-sufficiency through shale oil, China finds itself in a delicate balance and Europe, committed to decarbonization, seeks to reduce its historic dependence on imports. The global energy landscape is in the midst of transformation.

For companies, assessing the degree of energy independence of a country is not only a strategic issue, but a necessity to mitigate supply risk. Stable access to energy resources directly affects production costs, supply chain security, and global competitiveness. In a context where geopolitical tensions can disrupt supplies at any moment, it becomes essential to diversify energy sources and develop resilient strategies to reduce exposure to external shocks.

But what does it really mean to talk about energy? The key concept is the energy mix, or the composition of a country's energy sources. Oil, gas, coal, nuclear and renewables combine in different proportions, determining a nation's level of independence or vulnerability. The graph below clearly shows the differences in the energy mix between the U.S., China and Europe, highlighting how fossil fuels are still dominant in some areas, while renewables and nuclear assume greater weight in others.

Pic.1 - Energy-Mix composition

Source: ExportPlanning Analysis based on IEA data

United States: The Shale Oil Revolution and the Decline of OPEC

For much of the 20th century, the United States relied on oil imports from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iraq. But the shale oil revolution has rewritten the rules of the game. Thanks to fracking, a technology that uses high-pressure water and sand to fracture rock and release hydrocarbons, the United States has become the world's leading producer of oil and gas.

Under the Trump administration, energy independence has been a strategic priority. Washington has drastically reduced imports, beginning to export energy and gaining more influence in global markets. The graph below shows the dramatic change in the U.S. energy balance: from the deep dependencies of the early 2000s to near total self-sufficiency today.

Pic.2 - U.S. Import-Export Energy Mix

Source: ExportPlanning Analysis based on IEA data

This change has had significant repercussions: increased supply has lowered energy costs and reduced the power of historic cartels such as OPEC. However, the dominance of fossil fuels may not last long.

Although the United States has achieved near self-sufficiency in energy, it now faces the challenges of ecological transition and domestic political pressures to reduce the environmental impact of fracking and carbon emissions.

China: The Clean Energy Paradox

A distinctly different position, however, occupies China. It is the largest consumer of coal and the second largest consumer of oil in the world.
Its economic growth has fueled an insatiable demand for energy, increasing import dependence and exacerbating environmental problems.

Pic.3 - Chinese Import-Export Energy Mix

Source: ExportPlanning Analysis based on IEA data

However, Beijing has adopted a two-pronged strategy: while, through agreements with other countries, it continues to import fossil fuels to support its domestic needs , it has become a world leader in the production of renewable energy technologies. One-third of new global wind and solar capacity is installed in China and it sells more electric cars than any other country. However, looking at its energy mix, the dominance of coal and fossil fuels still makes it premature to consider it a truly sustainable nation.

Thus, China's strategy seems aimed more at energy security than decarbonization: Beijing exploits the production of clean-energy-powered goods for the world market, while not benefiting fully domestically. In addition, trade agreements with developing countries ensure stable access to needed resources.

Europe: Between Sustainability and Dependence

Europe has historically been dependent on energy imports, particularly gas and oil. Despite huge investments in renewables and nuclear power, the continent's energy balance remains negative.
The crisis between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted the fragility of this dependence, accelerating the search for alternatives.

The graph below shows only faint fluctuations over time, not enough to convert Europe's energy balance from negative to positive.

Pic.4 - European Import-Export Energy Mix

Source: ExportPlanning Analysis based on IEA data

Unlike China and the United States, Europe is taking concrete steps toward energy transition. Currently, nearly 19 percent of the European energy mix is composed of renewable sources (biofuels, geothermal, solar, wind, hydro), compared with 10 percent in China and 8.5 percent in the United States.

Decarbonization represents an opportunity for Europe not only to strengthen its energy security, but also to lower energy costs and take the lead in clean technologies (clean tech). The decarbonization process involves the large-scale adoption of energy sources with low marginal cost of production, such as renewables and nuclear power, thus enabling a more efficient and globally competitive European energy system.

A key piece of this strategy is the Clean Industrial Deal, launched by the European Union to open a new chapter in the continent's industrial history. The goal is to restore competitiveness to the European economy without giving up world leadership in sustainability. This plan aims to strengthen green industrial production, boost technological innovation and reduce dependence on fossil resources, thereby consolidating a resilient, low-carbon growth model.

Despite progress in the energy transition, Europe's import-export balance remains consistently negative. To ensure the stability of its supply, the continent will need to find effective solutions: if self-production is not enough, it will be crucial to diversify energy sources and suppliers, thus reducing the risk arising from geopolitical crises and tensions in international markets.

Conclusion: The New Energy Power Map.

Energy independence is more than an economic goal-it is a survival strategy. The United States has shown that innovation and targeted investment can reduce import dependence. China, while still heavily dependent on coal and oil imports, maintains its energy security through the production of clean-energy goods for export and agreements with emerging countries. Europe is the only major power that is focusing on a structural energy transition, but it must reduce its import-related vulnerability.